Prospective analysis: traffic control devices in Cuban historical centers

Abstract

The prospective analysis of the process of managing traffic control devices is presented as part of the accessibility and mobility management process in Cuban historical centers, and its application in the city of Matanzas. Among the tools used are brainstorming, document review, direct observation, and interview of experts, complemented by methods for prospective analysis such as Cross Impact Matrix - Multiplication Applied to a Classification (MIC-MAC), Matrix of Alliances and Conflicts, Tactics, Objectives and Recommendations (MACTOR), construction and analysis of the morphological space (MORPHOL), and probabilistic analysis of the scenarios (SMIC-Prob-Expert). From the prospective analysis, the key variables, the actors involved, the strategic objectives, and the hypotheses for the construction of the reference scenarios are identified, from which improvement actions are proposed that affect the management of control devices. of traffic in Cuban historical centers.