Methodology for forecasting demand integrating the design of scenarios

Abstract

Starting in the 1990s, tourism became a strategic sector of the Cuban economy, however, over the years, limitations due mainly to the economic policy of the United States towards Cuba have prevented its full development. Together with this, the paralysis of tourism in the world  due to the effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, causes a situation of uncertainty and instability in the numbers of international tourist arrivals in the country, which is why the study of your behavior. In this sense, the objective is to design a methodology that integrates the forecast of tourist demand with prospective scenarios to help improve decision-making in the tourism sector in Cuba. The designed methodology, based on theoretical and statistical methods, can be applied to situations that require forecasting demand in different scenarios through the time series.